Discussion : Singapore Property

[wolfeyes1974]

Interesting views so far....

Well for me, I am very comfortable where I am, and am looking to make an investment on a property where I know would reap a difference of >$200psf. Affordability is a concern and in this gloom industry, we have to be prudent but I do see this as a window of opportunity. One may have to be working and saving every single cent you earn to have a cold hard cash of >$300k in 5 yr. Hence this is a window of opportunity. Of course one should NEVER do an investment of such degree if its beyond one's ability / means.

I too agree that there is a 7yr (min) cycle to the property fluctuation. If you can participate once every 7 yrs to grow your savings, I think its a very good opportunity.

My take is that it will get worse that what we are at now...

IMHO, it's not time to buy any property yet...even the prices of recent fraser centrepoint's mass market condo launch at jurong (today's ST) are still too high...

[jazz_samz]

Thats what I am hoping to hear... abit ORH SIM lah but its time the rich lose some money right?? hahaa

[116520]

Much worse... trust me... when the data is released... the whole market will collapse... supply is way over demand...

Interesting views so far....


My take is that it will get worse that what we are at now...

[jazz_samz]

Interesting views so far....

Well for me, I am very comfortable where I am, and am looking to make an investment on a property where I know would reap a difference of >$200psf. Affordability is a concern and in this gloom industry, we have to be prudent but I do see this as a window of opportunity. One may have to be working and saving every single cent you earn to have a cold hard cash of >$300k in 5 yr. Hence this is a window of opportunity. Of course one should NEVER do an investment of such degree if its beyond one's ability / means.

I too agree that there is a 7yr (min) cycle to the property fluctuation. If you can participate once every 7 yrs to grow your savings, I think its a very good opportunity.

My take is that it will get worse that what we are at now...

[hoshi8]

buy a property you and your family loves....and within your means....whether it goes up or down doesnt really make much of a difference becos you are going to live through another so called 7 yrs property cycle...

i bought my condo early 2008...people say too expensive...blah blah...

i got to enjoy my condo for 1 yr and people are 'waiting' for the perfect time to buy 1...but as long as i can afford it....why care about the 'sour grapes' people?

remember this...there is no perfect time...if the price and location suits you and you can afford it...go for it...

if you intend to flip the condo or thinking that its a temporary lodging...then wait until end of this year...prices will soften further....

[DM101]

It is all about CREDIT ... a matter of how much the bank evaluate the price of the property and amount comfortable they loan to buyer....

Compared to major cities like SHANGHAI, BEIJING, etc. our property price is considered cheap already I guess

[lolex kia]

It's not always about prices. If you like a particular location, there may be no sellers. That place could be near your childhood home, your mother in law's place, or near a good school. If a property in that locale comes up, then one has to take the step to buy, even though the price has not fallen so drastically.

[theOrion]

In the end, just like watches, if an opportunity comes up for you with a property that speaks to you, at a price that's comfortable to you. BUY IT. Because if you keep waiting, you may never get your first choice, or like technology, if you always feel that by waiting you can get something better then it is likely that you will end up getting nothing or a compromise instead.

So what the heck, trigger when it's something you really want. Because at the end of the day, even if you're flipping, you'll like to know that you've got is something that you yourself would wanna have, because if not, why would others?

[darth-khips]

mate, dun be too concerned about prices moving higher or lower. in many mature markets, its all about credit and affordability,measured by target market segment eg 2 roomer dist 9 or 10, average transacted price over average annual income, denominated by years.

also take note of rental yield spread over 2 things, use HDB bonds and housing loan rates. in the case of the latter, once it goes par or negative in a targeted segment, eg 3 roomer in dist 15, over 2 quarters, then game over for that sector, move on. however, data can be skewed esp studios and lofts.


alot of people will talk about macro economic environment etc etc. dun bother....when the economic reality turns for the better, or worse, it is already too late, you would have gotten out too early or gotten in too late.

alot of people will also tell you horror stories, about freinds and relatives over extending themselves by investing in properties; or bulllish tales about how their colleague make a killing buying several units at pre-launch etc etc.....again, dun bother, noise from the market place will just either entice you or panic you.


ask yourself, why property?? why not something else. i suugest you look at property counters, if you are afraid to lose upside momentum. citidev always leading indicater for upswings. buy it as a hedge. from 1997/98 to 2007/08, 10 year cycle...u go check citydev price....low of 3ish to high of 17ish(check yourselve, i cant remember the exact all time high and all time low....somply becoz i dun believe i can buy at bottom and sell on the top), that represents a return in % terms of 600% from low to peak. ask yourself, which physical asset gives you same return?? not including dividends(akin to rental....you can measure comparative yield) and importantly LIQUIDITY.

i suugest you buy property counters as a hedge against potential upswings, IF YOU BELIEVE PROPERTY PRICES HAVE BOTTOM. also can buy other counter like AllGreen, if you are buying cluster housings, wingtai for 99 leasehold exposures...alot of customized hedging by yourself.

only good thing about buying physical asset is the financing....80%, i.e. 400% leverage against your start capital, and loan at really low interest.


therefore, i recommend that YOU decide what sort of private dwelling you are looking at eg 99 leasehold suburban?? and buy a suitable property counter. leave it till YOU feel property cycle turning, go humbly to bank and secure bank financing BEFORE you buy(just ask with given income, and cash on hand, what sort of loan package can bank offer - you need not have selected a physical unit - do that and get a idea what you can be financed to buy and dun waste time), then do the deal and ride the cycle.


property cycles in singapore then to be Joseph cycle like - i.e. 7 years boom, 7 years bust. 1990 - 1997, 1997 to 2004. are we in a 3.5 yr cycle now??? 2004-2007.5, 2007.5-2011??

lastly, be diligent. not just reading about the property markets in newspapers and magazines or listen to peers and radio.....study price trend in selected developments. follow their rental yield. go down to every showroom opening. leave contacts with senior agents. collect every project brochure and store them for later references. attend auctions. buy the latest URA masterplan(if you r enbloc investor). even become part time agent to get inside track and for free subcription to URA and SISV data.


still feel like investing in property???

[ILuvDA]

erm..it b great for fellow singaporeans to buy their dream house if the prices are low...i dun mind the prices to crash though...haha..perfect time to grab my dream house...

When the prices fall drastically, it's about uncertain times. This translates to uncertainty about our jobs, and if we own a biz, uncertainty about remaining
profitable. The grabbing part becomes difficult then.

[feilong108]

erm..it b great for fellow singaporeans to buy their dream house if the prices are low...i dun mind the prices to crash though...haha..perfect time to grab my dream house...

[116520]

Correct! But don't expect to profit in short-term.....

it be good for the over inflated housing prices to crash...can pick up some good bargains along the way....

[feilong108]

it be good for the over inflated housing prices to crash...can pick up some good bargains along the way....

[116520]

Yes you're right. Those with holding power will stay in the market. I am not too worry about developers sell their units cheap cheap as normally they don't.

What I am worried is foreigners give up on SG property market and start damping their stocks and shift to places like HK, Jp, shanghai, etc... In this case, price will for sure drop like crazy....

It will come down further. Too many projects are in the pipeline. For good locations, developers don't want to lose money. They spent a fortune to do en bloc. Their calculation is simple: Price = costs of en bloc + construction costs + earning. Unfortunately market doesnt accept 'cost plus' mechanism. It would be too expensive for buyers = low sales = less cash in = cash flow problem for small developers. Once they are hit with cash flow issue, no other choice but to sell the assets at lost for liquidity purpose.

Ideally as buyer, we could catch those desparate developers. But for projects that are still not yet started, beware that weak developers may go bankrupt. Strong developers may choose to hold on their pricing and expect market to recover once their projects are finished, let say in 2 years time from now. But this is also speculative and assume market will recover by then.

[116520]

Yes, you're right. The property market is far worst than what it seems right now. There are too many TOPs this year and next year and the following year. With the economy downturn, much lesser expats will come to Singapore and not talking about those who left and about to leave soon. All the bad news of property market is not released yet and once it is out to the public, the market will crash... very sad...