What Shares To Invest?????

[116520]

Totally agreed with your last sentence!

Even with the market upswing these few days... I am still not convinced that we have reached the bottom and are already rebounding...

Central banks are offering credit to stem the credit crunch. But what is really happening to real physical economies are still unclear. Central Banks limiting the credit crunch is only addressing the symptoms, it doesn't really address the needs of businesses (lack of business).

We are in recession, and this is only the start. How long it will last... no one knows. But everyone agrees that this will be a long and hard one. MM says 3 to 5 years to recover, I wouldn't argue with him on that. If 80% of the companies announced reduced earnings... losses, etc during year close. Guess where the market will be heading?

And the other big thing that hasn't really hit us is retrenchment (unemployment rate). I think there will be another bloodbath after Chinese New Year... where employers (still Asian anyway) are still sympathetic and not let employees goes before CNY.

Hungary announced that they MAY (when they say may, I am sure it WILL happen) tap into USD25billion IMF loan. Again, this may be the tip of the iceberg. Hungary is the first, who knows how many countries may go the same route?

Sigh... not trying to sound super negative... but am just trying to be realistic.

aiya... buy rolex lah. Safe bet.

[armchaireconomist]

Even with the market upswing these few days... I am still not convinced that we have reached the bottom and are already rebounding...

Central banks are offering credit to stem the credit crunch. But what is really happening to real physical economies are still unclear. Central Banks limiting the credit crunch is only addressing the symptoms, it doesn't really address the needs of businesses (lack of business).

We are in recession, and this is only the start. How long it will last... no one knows. But everyone agrees that this will be a long and hard one. MM says 3 to 5 years to recover, I wouldn't argue with him on that. If 80% of the companies announced reduced earnings... losses, etc during year close. Guess where the market will be heading?

And the other big thing that hasn't really hit us is retrenchment (unemployment rate). I think there will be another bloodbath after Chinese New Year... where employers (still Asian anyway) are still sympathetic and not let employees goes before CNY.

Hungary announced that they MAY (when they say may, I am sure it WILL happen) tap into USD25billion IMF loan. Again, this may be the tip of the iceberg. Hungary is the first, who knows how many countries may go the same route?

Sigh... not trying to sound super negative... but am just trying to be realistic.

aiya... buy rolex lah. Safe bet.

[wind128]

Food for thought:
Sep 97 - Aug 98: STI dropped from 1954 to 856: -56.2% (average estimates)
Nov 07 - Oct 08: STI dropped from 3803 to 1600: -57.9% (average estimates)

The above figures are for 1 year period.

Are we near the bottom?

From Aug 98 to Jul 07: STI rises from 856 to 3651: +326.5% (10 yr period)
From Nov 08 to Oct 18: STI may rise from 1600 to 5226: +326.5% (10 yr period - projection only)

What do you all think?

[armchaireconomist]

Let the bloodshed continue this week...

[seiko.citizen]

(..) Forgot to add CPF not cut, ministers' pay not cut. so situation not as bad.

minister pay cut? i think more like pay rise (to battle inflation)

[Hary]

sti haven't reach 800 point yet. was walking around raffles place, the atmosphere is still not one of fear, many people are still dining out. no widespread retrenchments (there are some but not widespread), no paycuts. recruitment is still going on, Sat paper is still quite thick. HDB prop are still high. i think we only at beginning of recession/stock downturn. maybe good time to sell whatever you have, stay cash rich. pick up at lower prices later. Forgot to add CPF not cut, ministers' pay not cut. so situation not as bad.

I agree, we may have just seen the beginning of crisis. Biggest concern is the jump of unemployment rate. Straits Times may not report everything

[wind128]

yes ... expect another bloodbath ... intraday shortists will rule.

[116520]

HSI now at <11500.... tomorrow STI will drop like crazy...

[wind128]

sti haven't reach 800 point yet. was walking around raffles place, the atmosphere is still not one of fear, many people are still dining out. no widespread retrenchments (there are some but not widespread), no paycuts. recruitment is still going on, Sat paper is still quite thick. HDB prop are still high. i think we only at beginning of recession/stock downturn. maybe good time to sell whatever you have, stay cash rich. pick up at lower prices later. Forgot to add CPF not cut, ministers' pay not cut. so situation not as bad.

[triton]

the master has spoken

[jazz_samz]

I do generally agree that playing contra is very risky during this period, but if you are familiar with shares and warrants, exercising your warrant play (put) over this period and contra (if you are unable to pay out in full or no holding power) still offers some benefits.

BUT definitely one should ONLY play within its means... If you play, must know where to stop to reduce the damage done.....

be careful. If you made some profits, you can afford to burn some but NEVER over commit....

[jazz_samz]

New regulation is on playing "short". You cannot play short over the same period as doing a contra. But you CAN play short if the transaction is done on the same day itself.
Short is selling before buying.....

now still can play contra???tot got new regulations on it liao...hmm....

[seiko.citizen]

fearful market = lack of cash inflow to market (ie. everyone holding onto cash in large volumes, starving the market of desperately needed investment funds for growth)

[116520]

How to see if the market now is fearful now?
Lots of my friends, relatives, media, etc ask me not to put money into stock market... is this a fearful market?

Never buy a stock because you think it is cheap.
Buy when the market is fearful.
Look at the trading volumes, it is not fearful now.
Can see greed in the market.

[triton]

sounds familiar...

Never buy a stock because you think it is cheap.
Buy when the market is fearful.
Look at the trading volumes, it is not fearful now.
Can see greed in the market.