Originally posted by edsonchan
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What Fred say is true.
A lot of my friends cannot be bothered about prices when buying watch.
I bought my GMT II c at THG at $9599 didn't care much as well. Maybe I am stupid.
This is a crazy hobby.Leave a comment:
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POWER!!!!!!Originally posted by Fred_Tan View PostYou obviously didn't read my post....so let me reiterate my points...
You obviously think PAM is just 312 with a few more models as your discussion is only centred on this model. WRONG thought.
312 price never gone down.
They merely went up to 12k due to speculation when it was released in the mart in Apr-09 and is now stabilized at 8.8k.
Consider that most ppl got their 312 at 9.5k at average, this is still not bad.
I mean, if he/she are forced to sell his 312 now after wearing it for few mths, he only lose SGD1k - 1.5k maybe? That's less than 20% loss, right?
Can we say the same thing for other brand? NOOOO!!!!
Try getting any IWC, Rolex, AP & PP & we'll you losing much more with 40 and even 60% and no1 will even bat an eyelid.
The discussion of this thread is weather Panerai price has dropped.
My answer is YES & NO.
YES, select models like 24, 25, 88, 90, 104 & 164 are still dropping due to 312, 320, 305 & 321 release.
But they will recover in time as SWATCH group will not allow decoration on ETA7750-P1 mvmt from 2016 and Panerai will be forced to either discontinue these models or use ETA ebouche as it is which is impossible as it will not be COSC certifiable.
YES, 0, 5, 26K, 28L, 111, 112, 176, 177, 219, 233, 268, 270, 276, 292K, 306, 309, 316 & 322 has dropped slightly (<20%) from Oct-08 to Jun-09 and had stabilized in mid-09 and has now started to climb again since Sep-09.
This drop is much less when compared to PP Nautilus, AP ROO, Rolex.
NO, you forget that 2/56, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, Mare, 201s, 301, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 23, 26B-T, 28B-T, 56, 115, 117, 123, 127, 239, 292J, 301 and soon to be 317, 332 & 341 has never drop, period.
And they are now starting to appreciate again since Sep-09.
Select AP models like ROO EOD, T3, Alinghis & RBs dropped slightly <10% between Oct-08 to Jun-09 and has begin to recover in Sep-09. Other AP models price is still sliding due to design that's not popular has yet to find bottom of their pricing
PP 5711/1A, 5712/1A, 5980/1A has dropped by 35-60% from their peak in Sep-09. These 3 models have found the bottom in Jun-09 due to it's rarity, history & design and had started to gain value again since Sep-09
Apart from economics which is not under watch industry control, watch model & brand popularity, value, appreciation depends on 5 vital factors that're within the watchmakers' control:
1) Marketing
2) Rarity
3) Design
4) Technology
5) History
AP, PP & OP has all of the above & in controlling these factors tightly as it's their rice bowl.
Rolex who thinks they are Swiss govt missed out on factor number 2) Rarity when they got greedy and made 3 million watches per year in 2008.
Who's at fault when they made 10k units of 116520 Black per mth between 2007 and 2009?
Is it my fault? No.
Is it the you the consumer's fault? No.
Is it the AD's fault? No.
Is it PAP fault? No.
It is George Bush / Alan Greenspan / Tim Geitner / Madoff / Osama fault? No.
It's all Rolex own greed that's e cause of Ex2, GMT2c, DSSD, Milgauss, Sub-Date & Daytona's unending slide along with the non-sports model.
Panerai has reduced the number of watches from 30k to 20k from 2008 to 2009 by slowing & reducing the production and if it's too late, the release of select models to the mart.
Just imagine that some model still have not run outta J series which is 2007 production...it's obvious to any obiang like me that they know no one like certain model like 48, 113, 114, 212 & 213s.
AP had done the same for all ROOs in 2009.
PP had reduced the number of Nautilus from 2000 piece in 2008 to just 700 this year.
What about Rolex?
They open 5 more buildings that's unmark bringing the total to 50 and increase the production 2.7 in 08 to 3 million watches in 2009.
They even farmed out their parts mfg to China now.
They even try to cheat by introducing randomized serials number and using the same serials for different models right now now to mask this severe over-production when they started V-series.
No watch owner in their sane mind would want to see their watch to have more & more production number year-on-year.
And, no Swiss watch buyer would want to see their brand with any China parts.
Hublot tried it on BIG Bang and they got banged.
Rolex along with TAG & Omega had all forgotten that the generation MTV & Strawberry who are approaching our 20 to 40 years of age are taking over as the only consumer who are willing to pay for a watch these days. Our father & mother who are Generation X are no longer into watches as they are more concerned bout other priorities like retirement, healthcare & etc.
Our generation only want something that no1 else is wearing.
Gone are the days when my dad goes to a wedding banquet to find 7 of his fren wearing the same 1680 in e same reception.
Gone r the days when my granddad & 3 of my granduncles wouldn't mind visiting my great-grand parents wearing the same 5513.
Some went to their graves in Melaka wearing the same 5513.
These ppl are all dead, dying or outta $ due to over-ageing....they dun even have $ to pay Rolex Service Ctr SGD1,200 to full service their pitted case for goodness sake & I had to pay em.
Rolex had severely over estimate its branding power on the new generation M & S who want's to be exclusive.
I dun wan to wear e AP ROO Safari that my boss is wearing even when it's my fav must have item.
I dun wan to wear e Calatrava that my cousin is flashing around.
I dun wan to be seen in a Big Pilot cause my colleague in my office was dumb enough to get 1 last mth when he know's I already have one.
So, greed killed Rolex. Not grey-traders. Not me. We never make much. We never flood e mart.
Milgauss, DSSD, GMT2c and Daytona's new & pre-owned drop is not due to grey mart dealer. Grey mart has no control on rarity....we merely plug the mart gap to fill the demand with few pieces here & there to make our AD happi.
We cannot cause shortage any shortage will create a dynamic demand that will spur other grey traders opportunity to fill the gap very fast.
if we are what you accuse us of, they we would have killed AP & OP 10 yrs ago...
And, myself are Rolex fan & I am not putting any blame on Rolex.
I never profit from Rolex.
I only brought into Spore less than 5 pieces of Rolex in last 3 years and none of them are earning me one single cent of profit even when I sell em as BNIB for that matter.
I just need to maintain my sales of USD600k per annum per AD by taking in some Rolex to ensure I'm always No#1 in their list for AP & OP new models.
You're obviously making false & baseless accusations.
You're barking at e wrong tree.
And, you're off-topic.
Worst, you dun even know Panerai to speak about it.
You only know 312, it seems
Other traders like YKC brought in less than 30 piece of Rolex in last 3 years.
All in all, grey traders brought into SG less than 200 pieces of Rolex in last 3 years.
We are not the cause of Rolex failure cause we cannot possibly fight AD who brought in 30,000 pieces of Rolex a year into Spore.
I can assure you, all the grey traders here are not making one single cent from Rolex since 2006. We r just taking these Rolex to fulfill our qouta with the ADs to maintain relationships for other brands purchase.
In fact, starting from 2007, you can clearly see that our Rolex pricing is low as we r only keen to minimize losses asap by disposing fast.
You obviously ignorant and are only shooting off your mouth with no facts.
Rolex has only emself to blame for over-producing and over-mart worldwide.
And we, the grey traders have no power to ask Rolex to over-produce.
Fact of the matter, Panerai remains the only brand where most of its model like 2/56, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, Mare, 201s, 301, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 23, 26B-T, 28B-T, 56, 115, 117, 123, 127, 239, 292J, 301 and soon to be 317, 332 & 341 are not affected by this downturn.
Fact number#2, models like 0, 5, 111, 112, 176, 177, 219, 233, 270 & 292K had dropped only slightly (<10%) in this downturn when compared to other brands current model like AP ROO, Rolex sports model & PP Nautilus which dropped between (20-60%) and they have started to appreciate again recently with the exception of Rolex which is still falling into oblivion.
You're obviously missing the point here...
Anyway, all this talk about price dropping is bull****.
A person who really luv e watch & brand couldn't give a hoot to pricing.
From my regular buyers who seriously play AP, OP & PP dun care bout price....
SALUTE
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Read my post before you reply
You obviously didn't read my post....so let me reiterate my points...Originally posted by exxondus View Post
You obviously think PAM is just 312 with a few more models as your discussion is only centred on this model. WRONG thought.
312 price never gone down.
They merely went up to 12k due to speculation when it was released in the mart in Apr-09 and is now stabilized at 8.8k.
Consider that most ppl got their 312 at 9.5k at average, this is still not bad.
I mean, if he/she are forced to sell his 312 now after wearing it for few mths, he only lose SGD1k - 1.5k maybe? That's less than 20% loss, right?
Can we say the same thing for other brand? NOOOO!!!!
Try getting any IWC, Rolex, AP & PP & we'll you losing much more with 40 and even 60% and no1 will even bat an eyelid.
The discussion of this thread is weather Panerai price has dropped.
My answer is YES & NO.
YES, select models like 24, 25, 88, 90, 104 & 164 are still dropping due to 312, 320, 305 & 321 release.
But they will recover in time as SWATCH group will not allow decoration on ETA7750-P1 mvmt from 2016 and Panerai will be forced to either discontinue these models or use ETA ebouche as it is which is impossible as it will not be COSC certifiable.
YES, 0, 5, 26K, 28L, 111, 112, 176, 177, 219, 233, 268, 270, 276, 292K, 306, 309, 316 & 322 has dropped slightly (<20%) from Oct-08 to Jun-09 and had stabilized in mid-09 and has now started to climb again since Sep-09.
This drop is much less when compared to PP Nautilus, AP ROO, Rolex.
NO, you forget that 2/56, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, Mare, 201s, 301, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 23, 26B-T, 28B-T, 56, 115, 117, 123, 127, 239, 292J, 301 and soon to be 317, 332 & 341 has never drop, period.
And they are now starting to appreciate again since Sep-09.
Select AP models like ROO EOD, T3, Alinghis & RBs dropped slightly <10% between Oct-08 to Jun-09 and has begin to recover in Sep-09. Other AP models price is still sliding due to design that's not popular has yet to find bottom of their pricing
PP 5711/1A, 5712/1A, 5980/1A has dropped by 35-60% from their peak in Sep-09. These 3 models have found the bottom in Jun-09 due to it's rarity, history & design and had started to gain value again since Sep-09
Apart from economics which is not under watch industry control, watch model & brand popularity, value, appreciation depends on 5 vital factors that're within the watchmakers' control:
1) Marketing
2) Rarity
3) Design
4) Technology
5) History
AP, PP & OP has all of the above & in controlling these factors tightly as it's their rice bowl.
Rolex who thinks they are Swiss govt missed out on factor number 2) Rarity when they got greedy and made 3 million watches per year in 2008.
Who's at fault when they made 10k units of 116520 Black per mth between 2007 and 2009?
Is it my fault? No.
Is it the you the consumer's fault? No.
Is it the AD's fault? No.
Is it PAP fault? No.
It is George Bush / Alan Greenspan / Tim Geitner / Madoff / Osama fault? No.
It's all Rolex own greed that's e cause of Ex2, GMT2c, DSSD, Milgauss, Sub-Date & Daytona's unending slide along with the non-sports model.
Panerai has reduced the number of watches from 30k to 20k from 2008 to 2009 by slowing & reducing the production and if it's too late, the release of select models to the mart.
Just imagine that some model still have not run outta J series which is 2007 production...it's obvious to any obiang like me that they know no one like certain model like 48, 113, 114, 212 & 213s.
AP had done the same for all ROOs in 2009.
PP had reduced the number of Nautilus from 2000 piece in 2008 to just 700 this year.
What about Rolex?
They open 5 more buildings that's unmark bringing the total to 50 and increase the production 2.7 in 08 to 3 million watches in 2009.
They even farmed out their parts mfg to China now.
They even try to cheat by introducing randomized serials number and using the same serials for different models right now now to mask this severe over-production when they started V-series.
No watch owner in their sane mind would want to see their watch to have more & more production number year-on-year.
And, no Swiss watch buyer would want to see their brand with any China parts.
Hublot tried it on BIG Bang and they got banged.
Rolex along with TAG & Omega had all forgotten that the generation MTV & Strawberry who are approaching our 20 to 40 years of age are taking over as the only consumer who are willing to pay for a watch these days. Our father & mother who are Generation X are no longer into watches as they are more concerned bout other priorities like retirement, healthcare & etc.
Our generation only want something that no1 else is wearing.
Gone are the days when my dad goes to a wedding banquet to find 7 of his fren wearing the same 1680 in e same reception.
Gone r the days when my granddad & 3 of my granduncles wouldn't mind visiting my great-grand parents wearing the same 5513.
Some went to their graves in Melaka wearing the same 5513.
These ppl are all dead, dying or outta $ due to over-ageing....they dun even have $ to pay Rolex Service Ctr SGD1,200 to full service their pitted case for goodness sake & I had to pay em.
Rolex had severely over estimate its branding power on the new generation M & S who want's to be exclusive.
I dun wan to wear e AP ROO Safari that my boss is wearing even when it's my fav must have item.
I dun wan to wear e Calatrava that my cousin is flashing around.
I dun wan to be seen in a Big Pilot cause my colleague in my office was dumb enough to get 1 last mth when he know's I already have one.
So, greed killed Rolex. Not grey-traders. Not me. We never make much. We never flood e mart.
Milgauss, DSSD, GMT2c and Daytona's new & pre-owned drop is not due to grey mart dealer. Grey mart has no control on rarity....we merely plug the mart gap to fill the demand with few pieces here & there to make our AD happi.
We cannot cause shortage any shortage will create a dynamic demand that will spur other grey traders opportunity to fill the gap very fast.
if we are what you accuse us of, they we would have killed AP & OP 10 yrs ago...
And, myself are Rolex fan & I am not putting any blame on Rolex.
I never profit from Rolex.
I only brought into Spore less than 5 pieces of Rolex in last 3 years and none of them are earning me one single cent of profit even when I sell em as BNIB for that matter.
I just need to maintain my sales of USD600k per annum per AD by taking in some Rolex to ensure I'm always No#1 in their list for AP & OP new models.
You're obviously making false & baseless accusations.
You're barking at e wrong tree.
And, you're off-topic.
Worst, you dun even know Panerai to speak about it.
You only know 312, it seems
Other traders like YKC brought in less than 30 piece of Rolex in last 3 years.
All in all, grey traders brought into SG less than 200 pieces of Rolex in last 3 years.
We are not the cause of Rolex failure cause we cannot possibly fight AD who brought in 30,000 pieces of Rolex a year into Spore.
I can assure you, all the grey traders here are not making one single cent from Rolex since 2006. We r just taking these Rolex to fulfill our qouta with the ADs to maintain relationships for other brands purchase.
In fact, starting from 2007, you can clearly see that our Rolex pricing is low as we r only keen to minimize losses asap by disposing fast.
You obviously ignorant and are only shooting off your mouth with no facts.
Rolex has only emself to blame for over-producing and over-mart worldwide.
And we, the grey traders have no power to ask Rolex to over-produce.
Fact of the matter, Panerai remains the only brand where most of its model like 2/56, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, Mare, 201s, 301, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 23, 26B-T, 28B-T, 56, 115, 117, 123, 127, 239, 292J, 301 and soon to be 317, 332 & 341 are not affected by this downturn.
Fact number#2, models like 0, 5, 111, 112, 176, 177, 219, 233, 270 & 292K had dropped only slightly (<10%) in this downturn when compared to other brands current model like AP ROO, Rolex sports model & PP Nautilus which dropped between (20-60%) and they have started to appreciate again recently with the exception of Rolex which is still falling into oblivion.
You're obviously missing the point here...
Anyway, all this talk about price dropping is bull****.
A person who really luv e watch & brand couldn't give a hoot to pricing.
From my regular buyers who seriously play AP, OP & PP dun care bout price....
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I just bought a PAM312 and sold it away.
Then I got myself a GMT II Ceramic...
Looking for a big pilot now! Feel like buying a BR01-94Leave a comment:
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The correct phasse should be There're and not There are. Reason being that its used in a speech and not as a statement.Originally posted by edsonchan View Post
e.g. "I'll be there" as a speech vs I will be there as a statement
But since i am quoting another person, I find it rude to change what he said
hope it isnt affecting you.
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erhm, thats why i say depends on mkt. like singapore seem to be saturated on Rolexs and some PAM models thats why price is dropping.Originally posted by Fred_Tan View Post
Since you monitor worldwide prices, I am sure you also know economics 101. Demand vs supply.
Look at it this way. Watch brands determines how many watches to distribute to a country. One reason is to control the avilabity of a particular model. This is logistics in a company and I know cos I went to interview with a Swiss watch company b4 and theqn that I got assked was.
"In certain mkts, some models are highly sought after but our Swiss Mother company did not allocate sufficient supply for you. how will you handle?"
I stupidly said, "Give the mother company the stats, and demand and ho much more they can earn if they chang the supply to here instead."
The reply I got was. "Yup, that would work but not so for luxury watches. The mother company wants to maintain exclusitivy and control supply by not meeting the demand. Hence, you need to understand this and tell me how would you handle your customers and your agents that keep pestering you for the watch. You need to maintain the customer base and yet acknowledging this issue"
ok so the end thing is, i never got the job
however, now look at grey dealers. They see shortage. They faster go buy from overseas, bring back sell at premium cos got wait list (one example is Daytona. Used to be hard to get but now????). More people see this is profitable and bring more and more. In the end, mkt balance in 1 country is affected. Now, frustrating thing is, grey dealers start to screw the brand they used to make money with. Say oh, lose money lah, no good lah, i swear by another brand lah, etc etc blah blah blah.
Lets go back to PAM. PAM has a much better control as they only release a small certain number of models. e.g series might only have 2000 pieces worldwide. OF COS this will cause price surge everywhere. HOWEVER, this is possibliy a foresight by the management, something that Rolex, which started much longer, never foresee the potential economy racking abilities of grey dealers. Sad to say, if Rolex don realise this, it is a goner in the longer future.
Anyway, imagine as more people bring in more PAMs to singapore due to the initial impact (as per Rolex last time when many people earn money by bringing them in, hack caring the system). Price will eventually fall. let;s look at 312 since you mentioned it. Demand yes. But price? can still sell at over 10k? I see BNIB, LNIB, gg for 9.8->9.5->9.3 and recently 9k. This is a situation Singapore of cos. Worldwide demand is still there.
Look at Rolex Daytona maybe. In the states, sometimes only 1 piece is allocated and that makes it less lightly to have a price drop substantially.
My point is. don curse the brand that used to bring you profits. Look at the reason why it dropped in a particular region.
anyway, i am a buyer so I couldnt care less. But its quite sad to see people saying Rolex is no longer worthy. PAM IS dropping in terms of price in Singapore at least. I find that a fact hard to be pushed down regardless of what grey dealers say. In the long run, as more grey dealers start turning to PAM since ROLEX no longer gives them the same profit margin, the same thing will eventually happen in that country. Worldwide is of cos a different story.Leave a comment:
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Sure bo?
YES, I agree.
Price are less insane now for PAM0, 5, 24, 25, 88, 90, 104, 164, 212, 240 & 292K that got whacked by 305, 312 & 320 and soon 321....I agree, time to pick PAM0, 5, 24, 25, 88, 90, 104, 164, 212, 240 & 292K up before SWATCH group stopped allowing ETA6497 & 7750 from being decorated by Panerai starting from 2016....
NO, a big NO.
I DON'T AGREE WITH YOUR BROAD-BASED STATEMENT THAT PANERAI PRICE IS DROPPING.
All the super rare Pre-vendome like 2/156, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, 201s & 301s along with popular & very limited Post-V like PAM1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 23, 26B-T, 36, 56, 115, 117, 123, 127, 203, 217, 219, 232, 237, 239, 249, 267, 292J, 301 are holding fast since middle of 2009.
In fact these much sought after models' price are going up these last few mths.
Some of the rarer ones like 2/156, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, 201s & 301s, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 26B-T, 36, 56, 115, 117, 203, 239, & 267 had never gone down even for a dime in 2008 or 2009.
I'm sad that they are going up & sadder they never even come down for one single cent as I'll never be able to afford most, it not all of this models.
In fact Panerai is the only brand with select model like 2/156, 3646s, 6152s, 6154, 201s & 301s, 1B-T, 2B-T, 4, 9, 16, 21, 22B-T, 26B-T, 36, 56, 115, 117, 203, 239, & 267 that never depreciate even in this downturn or in 2000 due to Dot.com bubble burst, 2001 (911), 2003 (Desert Storm 2 & SARS) since they started public sale in 1998.
The same cannot be said of any IWC, JLC, Breguet, Piaget, PP, AP & Rolex vintage & current models where depreciation of 20-60% happens even on the Gods like Single Red, Double Red, Orange Hands, COMEX & Steve Mcqueen models and they have not recovered since.
And, they happen on every downturn since 1960s.
The funny thing is Rolex vintage value has started to drop in Sep-2007 way even before the crash in Oct 08.
If I look at current Rolex models; Daytona, EX2, GMT2c, DSSD, Milgauss, SD, Sub-Date, Sub in any TT, 18KYG and even Steel models along with all vintage Rolexes, they have found no bottom yet as the mass mart move away from small watches to bigger ones in & these ppl still have not return to Rolex since they moved to big watches....Rolex have suffered 50% mart share erosion since 1998...no thanks to post WW2 baby boomers that no longer work, retiring or dying.....some have died.
DSSD at 43mm was made to plug this mart share erosion....but look at the number of DSSD in all ADs & grey mart worldwide that're unsold since early this year....
Look at the amount of GMT2C & Milgauss that's collecting dust everywhere....
I dun see any mass produced PAM0, 5, 111, 112, 113, 114, 176, 177, 219, 312, 320 in any Boutique & AD's shelf anywhere in any country.
But I see at least one EX2, GMT2c, DSSD, Milgauss & Sub-Date Steel, TT & 18YG in the exhibition shelf outside every AD I went to in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, UK, USA, HK, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Spore & Msia and at least 10 more in the safe.
When u start to see basic steel models in exhibition glass outside any AD....that is VERY VERY bad!
THG in Orchard has 58 unsold Daytona Steel Black from M-series. They have another 80+ for V-series.
A director in THG told me Rolex is the only brand that's losing them huge $ right now! They are starting to move Rolexes out of the safe & placed em onto the floors....
AP ROO T3, EOD, RBs & Alinghis prices has stabilized & begun to climb again like Panerai.
PP Nautilus Jumbo 5711/1A-001, 5712/1A-001 & 5980/1A-001 has stabilized & began to climb as well. Aquanauts 5167/1A is also stabilizing.
I dunno where you get your data from.
But the fact that Panerai can sell well in Boutique & ADs as well as grey mart not only in SG-ROC but Rolex Forum, WatchNet, TimeZone, WUS testify to my statements above.
The new P9000 mvmt series in 312, 320, 305 & soon 312 is the only models that registered as SOLD OUT & pending new stock and hence the waitlist in all ADs & Boutiques in 2009. Their price may have come down from the peak few mths ago, but they are still selling like hotcakes in all ADs worldwide.
In Paneristi & ViaPaneristi forum, readily available 312 stocks in any AD are still being highlighted in these forums to members so that they can get it asap and cancel the queue....But the queue wait list is still very long....
No other brands have ever achieved this especially in this uncertain time amidst the biggest crash since 1929 Great Depression when even Rolex are still putting names on other watch till 1940s.
I look at all the BNIB, LNIB, Minty & PO Rolexes being advertised in all forums & I think hardly any of them are moving. In fact many great grey traders like BABKA, Marcus, John, Big Bruce, Tom B, Kenneth, Richard & etc had stopped carrying Rolex all together.
When traders stopped carrying a brand....where I come from as a trader, it marks the end for tat brand, period. There's no coming back from that once a brand lose it sale appeal even for the shortest or temporary moment as other brands will take it's place 4ever.
Rest assured, I monitor the market worldwide and there's only 1 brand right now with select new models like 317, 341, 305, 321, 320 & 312 where there's actually a REAL waiting list with paid deposit in all Boutiques & ADs worldwide....Leave a comment:
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I think this is not something new & is happening to every brand
.
"Wu si ki.... Wu si loh"
So, let the market decides.
DinoLeave a comment:
"Siang Ho Si Lou Ka Liao!"Then we buy and buy
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